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SDA Bocconi · ION Management Science Lab
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Research & Publications

Research

Our research program investigates how individuals and organizations make strategic decisions under uncertainty—and how they can do it better. We publish in top management journals, develop formal theoretical frameworks, and translate findings into practical tools.

Every paper we write connects to a larger program: understanding the foundations of theory-based decision-making, applying it to specific business domains, and exploring the cognitive and organizational mechanisms that make it work.

13
Published
7
R&R
1
Preparing
20
Working / In progress
41
Total

The Research Program

Our research is organized around a central question: How should managers and entrepreneurs make strategic decisions when the future is uncertain?

We approach this through three interconnected research streams. Foundations establishes the theoretical framework—what it means to think scientifically about strategy. Verticals applies this framework to specific business contexts—from innovation to M&A to CEO succession. Horizontals explores the underlying mechanisms—how theories originate, evolve, and spread through organizations.

Each stream feeds the others. Foundational insights reveal new vertical applications. Vertical studies surface horizontal mechanisms. Horizontal discoveries refine the foundations. This creates a cumulative research program rather than isolated papers.

Research Pillars

Foundations

The theoretical core of theory-based strategic decision-making. We develop formal frameworks that specify how managers should formulate theories, design experiments, and update beliefs based on evidence.

Key Questions

  • What is a strategic theory and how should it be structured?
  • How do you test theories through experimentation?
  • How does AI augment (or undermine) theory-based thinking?
  • What makes a theory-based approach normatively superior?

Core Papers

  • Theory-driven strategic management decisions (Strategy Science)
  • Bayesian Entrepreneurship (MIT Press)
  • Beyond Black Boxes: Agentic AI Systems for Strategy (Strategy Science, 2026)

Verticals

Applications of theory-based thinking to specific strategic domains. We study how the framework applies to particular decision contexts in business and beyond.

Key Questions

  • Innovation & Technology Strategy
  • Mergers & Acquisitions
  • CEO Succession & Board Dynamics
  • Policy Making & Public Decisions

Core Papers

  • CEO succession under anticipatory awareness misalignment (Org Science, 2026)
  • Decision-Making in Private Equity and Private Credit: An Integrative Review (AMA Annals, 2026)
  • Search Speed, Knowledge Domains, and Growth — YouTube channels (Working)

Horizontals

Cross-cutting mechanisms that affect how theories work across all contexts. We investigate the cognitive and organizational processes underlying theory-based decision-making.

Key Questions

  • Origins of theories — Where do strategic theories come from?
  • Parsimony & complexity — How simple should theories be?
  • Path dependency — How do early theories shape later ones?
  • Persuasion — How do theories spread in organizations?

Core Papers

  • A scientific approach: Large-scale replication (SMJ)
  • A theory-based view of path dependency (EINT)
  • Does a theory-of-value add value? (Org Science)

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Video Presentations

Watch our researchers explain the theory-based approach to strategic decisions.

Featured Publication

MIT Press

2025

Bayesian Entrepreneurship

Agrawal, A., Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Gans, J.S., Scott, E.L., & Stern, S. (Eds.)

The definitive framework for applying Bayesian reasoning to entrepreneurial decisions, synthesizing research on theory-based approaches to strategy under uncertainty.

The book provides both theoretical foundations and practical applications, showing how entrepreneurs and managers can formulate explicit theories, design rigorous experiments, and systematically update their strategies based on evidence.

View on MIT Press

Publications

Showing 41 of 41 papers

pubsonline.informs.org
Published
Foundations

Beyond Black Boxes: Designing and Testing Agentic AI Systems for Strategy

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Kazemi, S., & Pandey, A.

Strategy Science · 2026

Experimental evidence showing that AI augmentation in strategic decision-making can decouple confidence from quality—managers become more confident but not necessarily better.

pubsonline.informs.org
Published
Verticals

CEO succession under anticipatory awareness misalignment

Camuffo, A., Espinosa, M., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A.

Organization Science · 2026

Proposes that effective board-CEO matching depends on alignment of strategic theories, not just skills or preferences.

Published
Verticals

Decision-Making in Private Equity and Private Credit: An Integrative Review

Novelli, E., & Pignataro, A.

Academy of Management Annals · 2026

Integrative review of decision-making in private equity and private credit, synthesizing the literature and laying out a theory-based research agenda.

R&R
Verticals

Cage-ing knowledge: entrepreneurial approaches as learning toolkits for the construction, acquisition, and generation of knowledge

Agarwal, R., Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Sonka, S., & Valentine, J.

2026

Develops a perspective on entrepreneurial approaches as toolkits that construct, acquire, and generate new knowledge in firms.

R&R
Foundations

Entrepreneurial Responses to New Information under Different Theoretical Frameworks

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Messinese, D.

2026

How the theoretical frameworks entrepreneurs adopt shape the way they respond to incoming information.

R&R
Horizontals

Strategic choice and organization of business activities under managerial and statistical spillovers

Francetich, A., Frosi, C., & Gambardella, A.

Strategic Management Journal · 2026

Develops theory of how managerial learning spillovers and statistical dependencies affect the organization of business activities.

R&R
Horizontals

Subtraction and scientific approaches in entrepreneurial strategies: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Jannace, D., & Camuffo, A.

Management Science · 2026

RCT evidence on how subtraction (removing features/options) interacts with scientific approaches to strategy formulation.

R&R
Horizontals

Mindsets and the Absorption of Bayesian Reasoning

Frosi, C., Gagliardi, L., & Mariani, M.

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal · 2026

Studies how individual mindsets affect the ability to absorb and apply Bayesian reasoning in strategic contexts.

R&R
Foundations

Unleashing the value of a 'scientific approach' to entrepreneurship

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Teodorivicz, T.

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal · 2026

Unleashes the general-purpose value of a scientific approach to entrepreneurship — its theoretical foundations and its reach beyond specific contexts.

R&R
Horizontals

Parsimonious theorizing

Camuffo, A., Jannace, D., & Kazemi, S.

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal · 2026

Investigates the role of parsimony in strategic theorizing—when simpler theories outperform more complex ones.

Preparing for submission
Horizontals

Where do strategies come from? Individual domains and the generation of strategic alternatives

Frosi, C., Chondrakis, G., Gagliardi, L., & Mariani, M.

Management Science · 2026

Investigates the origins of strategic alternatives—how individual knowledge domains shape the strategies managers generate.

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Theory-Based Reasoning and Performance

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Jannace, D.

2026

Empirical study of how theory-based reasoning shapes firm performance under uncertainty.

CEPR Discussion Paper

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Selection in Strategy Formulation: the Impact of Domain Salience

Berchicci, L., Chondrakis, G., Frosi, C., & Mariani, M.

2026

Studies how domain salience affects which strategic alternatives receive attention and selection.

Working / In progress
Foundations

The Economics of Innovation Speed in Digital Platform Markets: A Theory of Persistent Multi-Domain Search

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Niederberger, S.

2026

A theoretical model of how innovation speed and persistent multi-domain search jointly determine value capture in digital platform markets.

Working / In progress
Foundations

Coordination Costs in Human-AI Hybrid Organizations: When Theory Clarity & Enabling Codification Matter

Camuffo, A., Niederberger, S., & Pandey, A.

2026

When theory clarity and enabling codification of work practices reduce coordination costs in organizations that blend human and AI agents.

Working / In progress
Verticals

Theory-Based Acquisition Strategies: An experimental analysis of AI impact on decision-making in M&As

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Pandey, A., Kazemi, S., Morales, C., & Merendino, G.

2026

Pre-registered experimental study of how AI augmentation reshapes theory-based decision-making in mergers and acquisitions.

Pre-analysis plan

Working / In progress
Verticals

Speed Forces Diversification: Resolving the Bowman Paradox Through Temporal Dynamics

Niederberger, S.

2026

Resolves the Bowman risk-return paradox by showing how temporal dynamics make speed a driver of corporate diversification.

Working / In progress
Foundations

The Canonicalization Thesis: AI Leverage as a Verification Bottleneck

Camuffo, A., Niederberger, S., & Pandey, A.

2026

Argues that AI's strategic leverage is bounded by what human evaluators can canonically verify — the verification bottleneck.

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Strategists as Theorists: Optimal Selection, Testing, and Revision of Competing Causal Theories under uncertainty

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Kazemi, S., & Pandey, A.

2026

Formal treatment of how strategists optimally select, test, and revise competing causal theories under uncertainty.

Selected for conference presentation

Working / In progress
Verticals

Measuring Scientific Decision-Making in Organizations

Camuffo, A., Montoya, H., & Teodorovic, T.

2026

Develops measurement instruments for scientific decision-making practices inside organizations.

Working / In progress
Verticals

Measuring what citations miss: text-inferred private value of patents and the entrant-incumbent debate

Kazemi, S., & Gambardella, A.

2026

Text-based measurement of patents' private value that goes beyond what forward citations capture, with implications for the entrant-incumbent debate.

Working / In progress
Verticals

A Canonical Model of Entrepreneurial Action

Agrawal, A., Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Gans, J., Scott, E., & Scott, S.

2026

A canonical model of entrepreneurial action that synthesizes the Bayesian-entrepreneurship research program.

Discussion paper

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Less Is More: Subtraction Neglect in Entrepreneurial Decision Making

Jannace, D., & Camuffo, A.

2026

Documents and explains subtraction neglect — entrepreneurs' tendency to add rather than remove features — in strategic decision-making.

Submitted to SMS conference

mitpress.mit.edu
Published
Foundations

Bayesian Entrepreneurship

Agrawal, A., Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Gans, J.S., Scott, E.L., & Stern, S. (Eds.)

MIT Press · 2025

The definitive framework for applying Bayesian reasoning to entrepreneurial decisions, synthesizing research on theory-based approaches to strategy under uncertainty.

pubsonline.informs.org
Published
Horizontals

Does a theory-of-value add value? Evidence from a randomized control trial with Tanzanian entrepreneurs

Agarwal, R., Bacco, F., Camuffo, A., Coali, A., Gambardella, A., Msangi, H., Sonka, S.T., Temu, A., Waized, B., & Wormald, A.

Organization Science · 2025

A randomized controlled trial examining whether entrepreneurs who develop explicit theories of value creation outperform those who don't, with evidence from Tanzania.

pubsonline.informs.org
Published
Horizontals

Design- and theory-based approaches to strategic decisions

Gambardella, A., & Messinese, D.

Organization Science · 2025

Contrasts design thinking with theory-based approaches to strategic decision-making, identifying when each approach is most effective.

tandfonline.com
Published
Horizontals

A theory-based view of path dependency

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Kazemi, S.

Economics of Innovation and New Technology · 2025

Develops a theory-based perspective on how early strategic choices constrain and enable future options through the lens of evolving managerial theories.

academic.oup.com
Published
Horizontals

Internal initial conditions and path dependence: An experimental and AI-synthetic study of theories and awareness of unknown events

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Kazemi, S.

Industrial and Corporate Change · 2025

Investigates how initial conditions and awareness of unknowns affect path-dependent strategic evolution, using experimental and AI-generated synthetic data.

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Uncertainty & Unawareness

Barney, J., Gambardella, A., Rath, J., & Wuebker, R.

2025

Examines uncertainty and unawareness as the cognitive substrates of early entrepreneurial decisions — what managers don't know they don't know, and what shapes pre-Bayesian framing.

Working / In progress
Verticals

Innovation and market structure

Bonatti, Gambardella, & Pignataro

2025

Develops theory of how market structure affects innovation incentives through the lens of strategic theories.

Working / In progress
Verticals

Search speed and theory discovery: A model for innovation

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A.

2025

Formal model of how search speed affects the discovery of effective strategic theories in innovation contexts.

Working / In progress
Foundations

De-blackboxing LLMs as evaluators in strategy research

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Kazemi, S., Malachovski, & Pandey, A.

2025

Methodological paper on using LLMs as evaluators in strategy research—when it works, when it fails, and how to do it rigorously.

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Persuasion in the theory-based view

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Kazemi, S., & Pandey, A.

2025

How strategic theories spread through organizations—the role of persuasion, evidence, and social dynamics.

Working / In progress
Verticals

Search Speed, Knowledge Domains, and Growth: Evidence from YouTube channels

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Niederberger, S.

2025

Empirical study of how search speed and knowledge domain breadth affect growth, using YouTube channel data.

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Awareness, information and generation of entrepreneurial knowledge

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Messinese, D.

2025

How awareness and information availability affect the generation of actionable entrepreneurial knowledge.

Working / In progress
Horizontals

Calibration and Augmentation Experiments for Entrepreneurial Education

Gambardella, A., Novelli, E., & Rath, J.

2025

Designs and tests calibration and augmentation experiments for entrepreneurial education, training learners in pre-Bayesian framing and prior formation.

sms.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Published
Horizontals

A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision‐making: Large‐scale replication and extension

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Messinese, D., Novelli, E., Paolucci, E., & Spina, C.

Strategic Management Journal · 2024

Large-scale replication of the scientific approach to entrepreneurship, extending findings across multiple contexts and populations.

pubsonline.informs.org
Published
Foundations
38 citations

Theory-driven strategic management decisions

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A.

Strategy Science · 2024

The foundational paper establishing an analytic, normative framework for theory-based strategic decision-making—how managers should formulate, test, and update strategic theories.

3rd highest cited paper in the TBV Special Issue

sciencedirect.com
Published
Horizontals

Scientific decision-making, project selection and longer-term outcomes

Coali, A., Gambardella, A., & Novelli, E.

Research Policy · 2024

Examines how scientific approaches to decision-making affect project selection and long-term innovation outcomes.

econpapers.repec.org
Published
Foundations

Framing Strategic Decisions in the Digital World

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A.

Strategic Management Review · 2023

Explores how digitalization changes the nature of strategic framing and the role of theory-based approaches in navigating digital complexity.

pubsonline.informs.org
Published
Horizontals

A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

Camuffo, A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C.

Management Science · 2020

The original RCT showing that entrepreneurs trained to behave like scientists—formulating hypotheses, designing experiments, and rigorously testing them—make better decisions and perform better.

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The Research Pipeline

Our research pipeline maintains a healthy flow from early-stage working papers through peer review to publication.

Working

20
In active development

Preparing

1
Ready to submit

R&R

7
Positive decisions

Published

13
Accepted & printed

Research Collaborations

Our research involves collaborations with scholars from leading institutions worldwide.

University of Toronto (Rotman)
University of Toronto (Rotman)
MIT Sloan
MIT Sloan
INSEAD
INSEAD
London Business School
London Business School
University of Illinois
University of Illinois
Politecnico di Milano
Politecnico di Milano

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  • Joint paper development
  • Data sharing for replication
Contact for Research Collaboration

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