Knowledge framework 
Transforming Uncertainty into Competitive Advantage

Theory-Driven Strategic Decisions

Strategy starts with selecting theories rather than choosing actions

Theories are selected through experimentation

The value of experimenting with theories increases with the number of theories and with their uncertainty

When theories are sufficiently uncertain, they become super-additive, that is, experimenting with a theory increases the benefits of experimenting with other theories

Foundational Research

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A. (2023). Theory-Driven Strategic Management Decisions, Strategy Science, published online.

Research

Published Articles

Camuffo A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., Spina, C. (2020). A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making: Evidence from a randomized control trial. Management Science, 66(2), 564-568.

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C. (2020). Founders, Apply the Scientific Method to Your Startup. Harvard Business Review (online article).

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A. (2023). Framing Strategic Decisions in the Digital World, Strategic Management Review, 4: 127–160.

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Messinese, D., Novelli, E., Paolucci, E., & Spina, C. (2024). A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making: large scale replication and extension. Strategic Management Journal. 45:1209–1237

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A. (2023). Theory-Driven Strategic Management Decisions, Strategy Science, published online.

Agarwal R., Bacco F., Camuffo A., Coali A., Gambardella A., Msangi H., Sonka S. T., Temu A., Waized B., Wormald A. (2023) Does a Theory-of-Value Add Value? Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial with Tanzanian Entrepreneurs. Organization Science. Published online

Jannace, D., & Camuffo, A. (2023). Curbing the Addition Bias: Scientific Approaches and Propensity to Subtract in Entrepreneurial Ideas. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol. 2023, No. 1, p. 15426). Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510: Academy of Management.

Bacco, F., Coali, A., & Wormald, A. (2023). Entrepreneurship Training and Founders’ Perceptions of Ability: A RCT with Entrepreneurs in Tanzania. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol. 2023, No. 1, p. 14625). Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510: Academy of Management.

Messinese, D., & Gambardella, A. (2023). Bayesianism and Unforeseen Events: Empirical Evidence from Two Field Experiments. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol. 2023, No. 1, p. 18710). Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510: Academy of Management.

Coali, A., Gambardella, A., & Novelli, E. (2024). Scientific decision-making, project selection and longer-term outcomes. Research Policy, 53(6), 105022.

Felin, T., Gambardella, A., Novelli, E., & Zenger, T. (2024). A scientific method for startups. Journal of Management, published online

Coali, A.; Novelli, E.; Sirigiri, A. & Spina, C. (2024). A Scientific Approach to Decision-making: Key Tools and Design Principles. Journal of Business Venturing Design. Published online

Working Papers

Agarwal R., Camuffo A., Gambardella A., S. T., Valentine J., (2024). How and What Do Entrepreneurs Learn? Entrepreneurial Approaches as Tool-Kits for Learning.

Camuffo, A., Espinosa, M., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A. (2023), Board of Directors’ Theories and Choice of CEO, paper presented at the CEPR-IMOENT Conference, Luiss, Rome.

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A. (2023). Search Speed and Theory Discovery: A Model for Innovation, paper presented at IMO-ESF Workshop, September 2024

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A. (2023). Algorithmic HRM: a theory-based view.

Published Books

Agarwal, A., Camuffo, A., Gans, S., Scott, E., Stern, S. (2024) (eds.) Bayesian Entrepreneurship, MIT Press, forthcoming

Knowledge Briefs

Founders, Apply the Scientific Method
to Your Startup

A Theory-based View of Strategic Leadership

Why Entrepreneurs Should Think
Like Scientists

The Science of Entrepreneurship